Fantasy Drafting

In the summer of 1985, I spent two weeks at a summer camp at Indiana State University in Terre Haute. There, I was introduced to the game of fantasy football by Dr. Joe Duncan, the professor in charge of teaching us how to do a radio show. I brought the game back to Woodstock, Illinois, and along with 13 other people started a recurring league that became Reality Fantasy Sports.

Fantasy football drafting is about strategy and fun

I’m preparing for our twenty-fourth annual draft taking place on August 24th. We play a “keeper” league, which means we protect a starting lineup and a developmental squad to maintain the character of our franchise from year to year. With twenty teams, removing up to 200 players from the draft pool before the first pick leads to slim pickings after the first half-round. There is a lot of emphasis placed on good scouting and long-term personnel decisions.

For many leagues, like the other two I am in, more (if not all) players are eligible to be drafted. Not all leagues allow players to be protected from year to year, and there is a wide variance in rules that give points for scores, returns, yardage and distance of the scoring plays. With so many kinds of fantasy football leagues out there, individual draft recommendations change with each new context. What doesn’t change is the overall strategy for how to come away with a successful draft experience.

Make a list
It seems obvious to prepare for anything that involves assessing information and making decisions. Many rookie owners and casual fans assume they either know enough to get by or are so ignorant of the sport no amount of work can help. They are wrong. Back in the 1980s, scouting was done by reading the daily sports section, watching five minutes of nightly news, and investing $4-5 for each of the handful of pro football preview magazines that were being published. Now, lists of pre-ranked players and projected statistics for the upcoming season are plentiful. Find one. Use it as a base, and consider it conventional wisdom about who is important.

Know who is injured
Even on the internet, draft lists are only as good as the latest injury report. Pay attention to the major dings, as those players may be tainted goods on draft day. Read enough to know the difference between a preseason hiccup and a performance concern. Peyton Manning isn’t going to see any preseason time, but how likely is he to miss a regular season game? If you are drafting with a computer nearby, make sure you pull up the current injury report to double-check.

Know the team hierarchy
Another important Draft Day resource is the depth chart. It can be a bit of a pain to navigate through every team, but knowing who is likely to start and who the primary backups are will influence your decisions, particularly later in the draft. Not every starter is valuable, but most starters get more opportunities to score points. Depth charts won’t tell you about platoons, when two or more players split the load at a position. Pay attention to news about individual players before assuming they are the workhorse. It is a conservative strategy to stock up on players on the same NFL team at the same position. While it costs you some practical week-to-week options in your starting lineup, having the primary backup to a banged-up starter means you still injury protection. That can be very effective when it is the system, rather than the individual, that is responsible for success (i.e. Denver rushing, St. Louis passing).

Pick who you like
Fantasy sports is about strategy and instinct, definitely, but many forget it is also supposed to be fun. There is nothing worse than rooting for a player or team you despise in real life. I never draft a New York Met in baseball, and I bench all my football players when they face my beloved Chicago Bears. Are you a fan of Antwaan Randle-El because he was the greatest player to carry the ball for the Indiana Hoosiers? Find a way to draft him, even if you have to reach a little. Drafting players you like to root for makes the season more enjoyable, win or lose in the fantasy game. Be smart about it, though. Don’t take your favorite kicker Robbie Gould ahead of rookie stud runningback Darren McFadden. Understand where your favorite players are projected to go, and try to nab them a round early.

Positions have a pecking order
Most modern fantasy football leagues would target runners first, even before quarterbacks. In our league, where yardage scoring is minimal and contributing to actual scores is emphasized, quarterbacks are the most important position. In fact, there have been plenty of champions who managed to win it all with just two effective players—a great quarterback and a good kicker. If your league has been around, look at the scoring from previous seasons to figure out which positions you should prioritize. It is equally important to know at which points the talent in a particular position drops off. If there are only four blue-chip runningbacks in the league and you draft fifth, be the first to take a quarterback.

Start a run
There is a strong sense of conventional wisdom in any league on how you are expected to draft. For most leagues, that means draft runningbacks first, get your quarterback by round three and wait until the very end for your defense, kicker and backup quarterback. When everyone follows that strategy, it is to your advantage to buck some trends. Selecting a position early causes panic in the plans of other owners. Instead of knowing they can get one of the top kickers in round 12, now they have to get one before they want to. While the rest of the league is adjusting, odds are good you’ll still get the bench guys you would have taken anyway. I like to target top players at each position and find ways to get them, even if it means reaching a round or two early for a player. While there will be plenty of scoffing from your peers at the time, this strategy works because you get higher quality at more positions—you get your choice of the neglected positions. Nate Kaeding is the best kicker in the league, in my opinion. I’ll gladly sacrifice a little talent in my fourth-string runningback for a chance to have my choice of kicker. Remember that, in the end, your starting lineup is more important than your bench.

Depth is important
Brace yourself for when your first-round pick gets knocked out for a few games. Odds are good that your team will have to deal with some adversity and start someone you would rather not. For almost two decades, the NFL has forced some teams to sit a week—a “bye”—to help with injuries and prolong the season without adding any games. This created havoc for fantasy owners in 1990 on because it means even your never-injured franchise quarterback has to be replaced once a year. I also have a “Bear Rule” which forces starters to the bench when they play the Chicago Bears (I hate rooting for my fantasy players to beat my real-life favorite team). Because of this, backups are vital. With byes, you can plan ahead and look for players who might benefit from specific matchups. Rex Grossman may not be a consistent or desirable quarterback, but if he is playing the league’s worst defense when your regular quarterback has a bye week, he’s a better pick late than wasting a higher selection on a guy who will ride the pine for you most of the year.

Make adjustments later
Fantasy sports are less about winning than about community. The best experiences happen when the group of owners is highly engaged and communicative. Trades are a great source of socialization, and they are ways to correct draft mistakes or cash in on draft successes. Waiver wires (when someone else gets rid of a player) and free agent pickups are also good ways to improve … as long as you pay attention to what is happening. Even in our deep 20-team keeper league, there are always players available during the season that can help you. In many cases, it is a neglected prospect who gets an opportunity to start due to injury. Keep your eyes open for opportunities to make changes.