The big caveat to this post is summarized: I understand. True fans are as blind as they are smart and devoted. If the Chicago Bears were still playing football today, it wouldn’t matter what came before. However, its the regional favorite Indianapolis Colts who are playing today, taking on a team that likely wouldn’t be here if it weren’t for a bad decision a month ago.
Though taking a back seat to Chicago, my love of the Colts is motivated mostly by their quarterback—who I saw play as a high schooler in New Orleans and spent four years trading for first-round picks to draft in my fantasy football league—and the better part of two decades I have spent living in this state. It apparently isn’t a strong enough love to look past the potential impact of their half-hearted effort in the final two regular season game.
Losing does not lead to titles
In the 43 years of Super Bowl seasons prior to this one, the title teams have gone 68-18 in their final two regular season games. The losing teams are almost as good, at 65-21. Fifty of those 86 clubs won their final two; only three Super Bowl teams have gone 0-2. So, it is relevant to note that two of the teams playing in the conference championship games—the New Orleans Saints and the Colts—came into the post-season with a losing streak.
Broadening the search to include all 443 playoff teams, we find that just 32 clubs ended the season with back-to-back losses. Those teams had 20 home games to their advantage but combined for a 21-31 post-season record, winning just 5 road games. There was one titleist in the bunch, but we have to go back to Super Bowl II to find the Green Bay Packers.
NFL Playoff Teams Who Finished the Regular Season 0-2:
- Tampa Bay 2007
- Dallas 2006
- Cincinnati 2005
- Minnesota 2004
- New York Jets 2004
- Philadelphia 2004
- Atlanta 2004
- Oakland 2001
- Minnesota 2000
- Detroit 1999
- Miami 1999
- Miami 1997
- Pittsburgh 1996
- New York Giants 1993
- Denver 1993
- San Francisco 1993
- Washington 1992
- L.A. Raiders 1991
- Houston 1989
- L.A. Rams 1986
- New York Jets 1986
- Seattle 1984
- New York Giants 1984
- Dallas 1983
- Dallas 1982
- Atlanta 1982
- Denver 1979
- Minnesota 1978
- Buffalo 1974
- Washington 1972
- L.A. Rams 1969
- Green Bay 1967
NOTE: Prior to 1975, home-field was not determined by regular-season finish. The playoff field expanded to 10 teams (with first-round byes) in 1978 when the NFL started playing 16-game seasons. In 1982, the NFL strike forced a 16-team post-season bracket. In 1990, the NFL expanded participation again to allow 12 playoff teams, and in 2002 the league realigned to a, 8-division format.
I type this not yet knowing the outcome of the games today. Both the Saints and Colts are hosting their opponents and statistically favored to win. By virtue of winning the previous week, they also busted the myth that resting starters leads to rust (sometimes it does, usually it does not). That was never the key gripe, at least for the Colts, who decided a chance at a perfect season was meaningless compared to the chance of suffering a key injury before the playoffs. This is a question of whether champions are built from losing streaks.
If the Colts should beat the Jets, it should be deemed more amazing than just a favored team advancing. They would become one of just a handful of clubs to ever struggle down the stretch and still wind up playing the final week for a title. Should they lose, however, I hope that those facing similar December decisions in the future will rethink the value of throwing away chances to win games. It is arrogant to believe you can purposely turn success on and off like a lamp.
