New formula for new stars

ESPN Insider John Hollinger unveiled a new evaluation formula that he claims is accurate in evaluating the pro potential of college basketball players. With the NBA draft scheduled this week, we won’t have to wait long to see whether the head honchos of the Portland Trailblazers—proud owners of the top pick—read ESPN.com but it will be several years before the pro careers of these near rookies can be evaluated.

According to Hollinger, Spencer Hawes may not be a good choice.

Hollinger’s formula uses pace factor (the estimated number of team possessions per 48 minutes) and Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule to level the playing field for the college stats before he starts weighting the kinds of performance indicators. One of them is his now standard Player Efficiency Rating (PER) that is intended to be a composite number reflecting all known stats. Micheal Jordan’s career rated at 27.91, just ahead of Shaquille O’Neal.

According to Hollinger, there are six other factors that determine pro career success:

1. Age—Seniors may be great for college tournaments, but not for making a splash in the NBA.
2. Steals—An important indicator of athleticism in guards.
3. Blocks—An important indicator of athleticism in big men.
4. Rebounds—The best players rebound as well as do other things well.
5. 3-pointers—It takes a couple years to adjust to the wider arc, but shooting is a consistent skill that translates to the pro game.
6. Pure Point Rating—An indicator of ball control, Mike Conley’s 2.45 is the class of the class.

Hollinger also factors in a bunch of don’ts, as in don’t draft guys who are too short or too tall, guards who don’t shoot the three-pointer, or bad rebounders.

The pure point rating is particularly interesting. It was created to replace the assist-turnover ratio, which penalizes guards who penetrate opposing defenses. The equation is:

Pure Point = (100* ((Assists * 2/3) – Turnovers))/Minutes

Hollinger says Steve Nash led the NBA last year with an 11.3 ppr, followed by Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, Jose Calderon and Deron Williams.

The rankings confirm that the Class of 2007 is loaded. Even excluding one-year studs Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, the incoming rookies have five of the top 23 collegians over the past six years. That bodes well for my Chicago Bulls, who got the third-best player since 2002 last year in the form of Tyrus Thomas. However, ESPN’s most recent mock draft has the Bulls taking center Spencer Hawes, #30 in Hollinger’s list.

Acie Law and Spencer Hawes are best to be avoided. Both are viewed as late-lottery picks, but they look like solid second-rounders from here. Hawes has an unimpressive rebound rate, which is a huge red flag considering he was bigger than everyone he played against. And for all the talk of his great post skills, he had a run-of-the-mill 55.0 true shooting percentage and didn’t even have the best PER on his mediocre team (that belonged to Jon Brockman). A lot of folks think he can become a quality pro post player; based on his numbers, I just don’t see it.

Chicago would be better to aim for Brandan Wright or deal down to get a center in a more appropriate draft slot.

There are a couple problems with this system.

First, the sample size is conveniently recent. Rather than put the data up against pros who have completed their careers (and thus can be properly evaluated), much of the validation is speculative. Tracy McGrady, for example, is a great pro but one greatly slowed by injuries. Dwayne Wade is proving a bit fragile, too. Jay Williams was in a motorcycle accident that changed his value dramatically. To strengthen the case for this formula, either it needs to be applied historically to earlier players or evaluated on its merit going forward. Injuries are a factor in the college ranks, too, as it is likely Greg Oden’s numbers would have improved (possibly dropping the productivity of his two first-round teammates, Mike Conley and Daequan Cook).

Second, there is nothing to account for the pro environment each player sees when they arrive in the NBA. Dwayne Wade jumped 8 points and over 2 assists per game when Shaquille O’Neal arrived in Miami. Michael Sweetney, ranked two spots higher on Hollinger’s board, had to start his career with the New York Knicks and was himself one of the many players moved through the organization over a short period of time. He is now with the Bulls, a very deep team, and may be too hefty to ever life up to his promise. If the college stats are the equivalent of nature, then the quality of the pro organization and players around a rookie is nurture.

Hollinger knows this, admitting that his formula is “version 1.0 of a system that is likely to undergo several iterations in future years, and it’s by no means perfect.” His best defense is that it appears to be a better slotting of draftees than what actually occurs.

Kevin Durant would be John Hollinger’s choice to go to Portland on Thursday.