OK, I’m no sabermetrician in the number-crunching sense, but I do get a kick out of the insights that can come out of advanced math in the hands of someone who knows how to use it. I was doing a search early this morning for records on minor league errors — which, oddly enough, is a really difficult stat to google for — and stumbled on this article by Voros McCracken. It’s old, in the Carter-was-turning-one sense (he’s six 1/2 now) but still very interesting.
What Voros argues is that, at the major league level, pitchers perform at such a high level as to make the differences between them mostly attributable to luck. Not to teammates. Not to their own prowess. It’s dumb ol’ luck that makes Atlee Hammaker an all-star starter one day and an all-star goat the next.
That isn’t to say that all pitching is irrelevant. The distinction is that the major league talent is so off the charts that any significant advantage that comes with talent is rendered moot. And we’re talking specifically about a pitcher’s ability to prevent a ball hit into the field of play. Walks, strikeouts and homeruns allowed are still where the money is made.
Just sort of cool info that explains my fantasy pitching woes to my satisfaction. For more on this, check out Tom Tippett’s take on the subject (circa 2003).
