Duh Experts

It is difficult to believe that a top seed playing at home in adverse weather conditions suitable to their style of play would be an underdog. Yet that’s what the experts at ESPN.com — at least one of whom once played for Chicago — think about the Chicago Bears. The lone vote of confidence in Rex Grossman and the Bears defense is a computer.

Today’s NFC Conference Championship pits my beloved Bears against the sentimental favorite, the New Orleans Saints. Conventional wisdom gives the Bears the edge in the defensive categories while the Saints have the better offense. Classic matchup for a very meaningful game. Both teams are coming off of first-round byes and 27-24 victories over quality opponents. The teams are led by quarterbacks who spent time in Indiana (Drew Brees at Purdue, Rex Grossman at Bloomington High School South) and the past two NFL Coaches of the Year. What the Saints don’t have is a familiarity with snow (technically, neither do the Bears in this wacky global-warming winter) and a throng of fans cheering wildly for them in the stadium.

The oddsmakers predict another 27-24 win for the Bears, favor Chicago by 2, and give an over-under of 43. Such is the match of Las Vegas. The Accuscore computer, simulator of choice for ESPN, has Chicago winning 58% of the time with an average win of 26-23. That is the result of some 10,000 sample games run one play at a time. To be fair to the ESPN panel of experts, intangibles such as post-Katrina sentimentality and the Jeckyl-and-Hyde play of Rex Grossman aren’t likely well reflected in the computer algorithms. Still, you’d figure someone would go with the home team.

Accuscore isn’t the only sim engine. WhatIfSports.com also has a free simulator. Setting game conditions to 30-degrees, heavy precipitation and medium wind, the Bears won, 13-10 in my first sample. They went 4-1 in the next five simulations. While this is a boost of confidence, WIS simulations are based on comprehensive stats and do not take into account the ebbs, flows and trends of the season. For instance, the Rex Grossman of the first third of the season would have broken every record in the book. The Grossman of the 0.0 quarterback rating was almost as frequent. The sim sees an average quarterback. Same is true of the Bears defense, who lost two key players midseason and have struggled since then. Their defense up to that point was so outstanding, though, it masks their recent statistics.

USA Today favors the Saints in a 27-20 win, with oddsmaker Sheridan saying Bears by 2-1/2. CBSSportsline — a favorite source for fantasy football — not only gives more free information than ESPN about the Accuscore predictions but has their own field of experts making predictions. Four of six say the Bears will win.

Naturally, I hope this postseason is as special as the one 21 years ago. The best-case scenario is that my favorite team (Bears) beats my favorite player (Peyton Manning) on February 4, of course, but this is a dream slate for me. The Saints (I spent time in New Orleans a dozen years ago) are #3 on my favorites list, and the most sports informaticsy coach (Bill Belichick) will be on the sidelines tonight. This is easily the most anticipated Super Bowl for me since the one I missed when Carter was born ().